What makes the Golden Globes so fun is that there is seemingly no method to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s madness, which provides plenty of room for surprise wins during the show. That’s precisely what also makes the Globes notoriously hard to predict, too: Will they go with the art house film that’s a frontrunner for the Oscars? Will they award a new series you haven’t started binging yet? Will they just pick the biggest movie star among the nominees and give them the Globe?
With that said, John Boone and Philiana Ng offer up their best guesses as to who will win in each of the film and TV categories, respectively, ahead of Sunday’s Golden Globes:
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: A Star Is Born
Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut is the awards season frontrunner, by most estimations, and by shifting its major competition such as The Favourite and Roma into Musical or Comedy and Foreign Film, A Star Is Born‘s win here seemingly has no chance of being spoiled.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga
This race boils down to Glenn Close, a 13-time Globe nominee and two-time winner, and Gaga, who won her first Globe for her first-ever nomination. Close seems due, but Gaga won with the HFPA for American Horror Story: Hotel, so why not again?
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Who Will Win: Rami Malek
Even as I type this, I can’t believe I’m betting against Cooper. But HFPA voters seem to have loved Bohemian Rhapsody, and if it’s going to win somewhere, Malek makes the most sense to upset.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
Who Will Win: The Favourite
If I were an HFPA voter, I’d cast my ballot for a box office hit with heart, humor and musical moments: Crazy Rich Asians. But this feels like a race between The Favourite, Green Book and Vice. The former is genuinely hilarious and boasts serious star power in the likes of Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, so that’s my prediction.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Who Will Win: Olivia Colman
While I’d truly love to see Fisher (the newcomer) or Wu (the history-maker) give an acceptance speech, this one feels like it’s between the Brits. I’m guessing Colman will edge out Blunt, but it could just as easily go the other way.
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Vice was the HFPA’s most-nominated film of the year, and though critical and public reception may have soured some of its laudability, Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney will still win him gold here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who Will Win: Regina King
Despite a few recent bumps, King has long been considered the frontrunner in this category. Amy Adams has closed that gap of late but considering both actresses are nominated in the same two categories, I’m guessing the HFPA will spread out the love and crown King here and Adams on the TV side.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Sam Rockwell undergoes a flashy, uncanny turn as George “Dubya” Bush, but he won last year, whereas Ali notably lost the last time he was nominated for Moonlight, a role that won him an Oscar and just about every other award except a Golden Globe.
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
This feels like a toss-up between Cooper and Cuarón. If the HFPA awards Malek over Cooper for Best Actor, maybe they’ll make up for it with Best Director. (Then again, maybe a Best Drama win would be enough.) Cuarón is the prestige pick, though maybe voters will think Best Foreign Film is enough for him. I’ll go with Cuarón, though.
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga and Brian Currie, Green Book
Who Will Win: The Favourite
This could be another smaller race where the HFPA has a chance to award Vice — and its writer-director, McKay — but I think the wicked, wordy screenplay for The Favourite will take the prize, making the dark comedy one of the night’s biggest winners.
BEST ANIMATED MOTION PICTURE
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Safe money says Pixar will come out on top yet again, but the dizzyingly unique Into the Spider-Verse is hot enough right now that I think there’s a good chance it will break the Mouse House’s hold on this field.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE MOTION PICTURE
Never Look Away (Germany)
Who Will Win: Roma
HFPA guidelines stipulate that both Best Picture races “are exclusively for English-language motion pictures,” hence why Roma was left out of the Best Drama category. It will win here, instead.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Who Will Win: Black Panther
First Man has a truly stellar score, so much so that even as the film’s awards prospects have, ahem, failed to launch, its strongest bet lies in Hurwitz’s work here. However, I’m betting the HFPA will use this opportunity to show Marvel some love.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: “Shallow”
Oh, haaa-ah-ah-ah, haaaaWWAHH, HAAA-AHH-AHH-AAHHH.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Who Will Win: Killing Eve
In this uber-competitive category, it would be easy to go with The Americans, a nice capper to a magnificent run on FX, or Netflix’s buzzy British drama, Bodyguard, or even Amazon’s freshman series, Homecoming, but I’m betting on BBC America’s divine Killing Eve to take the cake.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Who Will Win: Julia Roberts
Roberts is my pick to be handsomely rewarded for leading her first TV series, but my heart is pulling for Globes co-host Sandra Oh — who missed out on making Emmy history in September — to win her first Globe since 2006. Oh has momentum, so it’s hard to believe she’d lose out on this one, but if anyone has the star power to play spoiler, it’s Roberts.
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Stephan James, Homecoming
Who Will Win: Matthew Rhys
Matthew Rhys won his first Emmy for the final season of The Americans, and I think the Globes will follow suit by awarding him his first Golden Globe.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The Good Place
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Who Will Win: The Good Place
Hear me out. I absolutely adore The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but the HFPA are a funky bunch, meaning you should expect some unexpected choices. It’s taken three seasons for NBC’s gloriously underrated comedy to be considered a serious awards contender (seriously, what took so long?), and I think it’ll finally reap all the rewards.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY SERIES
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will and Grace
Who Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Awards darling Brosnahan is the frontrunner to repeat, but she has some formidable competition this go-around. First-time nominee Kristen Bell could very likely spoil Brosnahan’s back-to-back bid, and honestly, if Bell does pull off the upset, the acceptance speech will be forkin’ awesome.
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL OR COMEDY SERIES
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Who Will Win: Michael Douglas
As if it hasn’t been established already, the HFPA loves star power, and every year, they latch onto a new show to obsess over. I think Netflix’s The Kominsky Method is that show this year and who’s bigger Hollywood royalty than Michael Douglas?
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
A Very English Scandal
Who Will Win: Sharp Objects
This will likely be a three-way race between The Assassination of Gianni Versace, Sharp Objects and A Very English Scandal. While Versace has cleaned up at nearly every other awards show, the brilliant Sharp Objects adaptation is a worthy successor to its throne. All that said, I would not be shocked if A Very English Scandal (remember, it’s an international voting body determining the winners) pulls off the upset.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Who Will Win: Amy Adams
My pick here is the Oscar nominee and two-time Globe winner, who was both heartbreaking and gripping as Camille Preaker, a reporter forced to face her inner demons, in the dark, cerebral Sharp Objects. Possible spoilers could be The Tale’s Laura Dern or Seven Seconds’ Regina King.
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Who Will Win: Darren Criss
There shouldn’t be any reason for Darren Criss not to win his first career Golden Globe, but the HFPA loves Amazon and A-listers, so if Hugh Grant’s name is read instead, don’t be surprised one bit.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Will Win: Patricia Clarkson
The TV supporting categories at the Globes are always strange because they lump comedy, drama and limited series/TV movie nominees altogether, as if they were all on equal footing. (Spoiler: They’re not.) So really, anything goes. It’s hard to bet against any of these deserving women, but Clarkson, who was previously Globe-nominated in 2004 on the movies side, should reign supreme.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
Who Will Win: Henry Winkler
If an actor were to ride the Emmy wave to a Golden Globe win, it’d be the Fonz himself. But A Very English Scandal’s Ben Whishaw or The Kominsky Method’s Alan Arkin could be dark horses.
The 76th annual Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh, will air live on Jan. 6 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PST on NBC.
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