Tag Archives: ‘WorstCase’

Toronto, Peel move into COVID-19 lockdown Monday as Ontario tries to stop ‘worst-case scenario’

Toronto and Peel Region are moving into “lockdown” effective midnight Monday as Ontario tries to curb a steep rise in COVID-19 cases, Premier Doug Ford announced Friday.

The shutdown will last a minimum of 28 days, equal to two incubation periods for the coronavirus, and the province says it will fine people $ 750 for violating public-health rules.

“Further action is required to prevent the worst-case scenario,” Ford told reporters.

Meanwhile, Durham and Waterloo regions are moving into the red “control” zones while Huron-Perth, Niagara, Simcoe-Muskoka, southwestern Ontario and Windsor are moving to the orange “restrict” zone.

The lockdown restrictions mean:

  • No indoor gatherings with anyone outside a person’s household.
  • Individuals who live alone can have close contact with one other household.
  • Outdoor gatherings are limited to 10 people.
  • Restaurants are limited to take-out, drive-through and delivery only.
  • Religious services, funerals and weddings are limited to 10 people indoors or 10 people outdoors.
  • Gyms are closed.
  • Non-essential retail and malls are limited to curbside pickup or delivery only.
  • Personal care services, casinos and bingo halls are closed.
  • Post-secondary institutions move to virtual instruction, with some exceptions, such as clinical training.
  • Pharmacies, doctor and dentist offices, grocery stores, essential services remain open.
  • Schools will also remain open.

Hospitalizations up by 22%, ICU visits by 50%

The measures come as Ontario reports 1,418 more cases of COVID-19. 

Eight more people with COVID-19 have died, the province said Friday, bringing the official death toll to 3,451. So far this month, 315 people have died of COVID-19 in Ontario.

Nearly 80 per cent of cases reported in recent days are from regions in red zones, Ford said. At the same time, hospitalizations have increased by 22 per cent, and intensive care admissions have risen by 50 per cent.

WATCH | Health Minister Christine Elliott on what’s open and closed amid the new restrictions:

Health Minister Christine Elliott explains what will be open and what will be closed in this video. 2:19

Health officials and local politicians in Toronto and Peel have advocated and publicly supported additional, more far-reaching restrictions. Both areas are registering consistently high daily case counts and alarming test positivity rates. Local officials in York have instead pushed for very targeted measures.

The new cases include 393 in Toronto, 400 in Peel Region and 168 in York Region. The province has now seen more than 100,000 confirmed cases of the illness since the first infection was reported in late January. 

The province released an updated version of its COVID-19 framework to highlight what will change during the lockdown.

You can read those changes in the document below:

Also on Friday, the province announced $ 600 million in relief for eligible businesses required to close or significantly reduce their services as a result of the new measures.

Still, the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses is concerned the lockdown will be “devastating” for small business owners in Toronto and Peel Region and is calling on the government to develop a policy for small businesses to remain open with capacity limits.

“Today’s restrictions once again create an unfair advantage for big box operators like Walmart and Costco, leaving Main Street retailers to shoulder the burden alone,” the federation’s written statement says.

“That large department stores can be open while small retailers are forced to close during the busiest season of the year is a direct punch to the gut of independent businesses.”

COVID-19 still spreading in other parts of the province

The other public health units that reported double-digit case increases today were:

  • Ottawa: 77
  • Durham: 46
  • Windsor: 45
  • Middlesex-London: 37
  • Halton Region: 36
  • Hamilton: 36
  • Simcoe Muskoka: 33
  • Waterloo: 28
  • Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 26
  • Niagara: 21
  • Grey Bruce: 21

The newly confirmed infections Friday push the seven-day average up to 1,373 after three straight days of declines.

They come as Ontario’s labs processed 48,173 tests for the novel coronavirus, the most on a single day since Oct. 8. The province reported a test positivty rate of 3.6 per cent.

Ontario’s testing network currently has capacity for up to 50,000 tests daily. The provincial government has said it hopes to expand capacity to 100,000 tests per day by mid-December.

There are 12,623 confirmed, active COVID-19 infections provincewide, five fewer than yesterday. It was the third straight day that the number of resolved cases outpaced new ones, after reaching a second-wave high of 12,932 active cases on Nov. 17.

The number of people in Ontario hospitals with confirmed cases of the illness fell to 518, down from 526. Patients being treated in intensive care fell by four to 142, but those on ventilators increased by four to 92. 

Notably, an internal report from Critical Care Services Ontario, shared by sources with CBC Toronto Thursday, put the number of patients in ICUs at 150. Last week, public health officials said that is the threshold before other surgeries and procedures will likely need to be cancelled to accommodate COVID-19 patients.

[Note: All of the figures used in this story are found in the Ministry of Health’s daily update, which includes data from up until 4 p.m. the previous day. The number of cases for any particular region on a given day may differ from what is reported by the local public health unit, which often avoid lag times in the provincial system.]  

Health orders extended to Dec. 21

Meanwhile, the provincial government said Friday that public health orders currently in effect across Ontario will stay in place for at least another month.

The province said the current orders under the Reopening Ontario Act will remain in force until Dec. 21.

Solicitor General Sylvia Jones said extending the orders will ensure the province can address the health crisis and deliver critical services such as health-care.

WATCH | Restaurant owner discusses how new restrictions could affect business:

With Premier Doug Ford poised to implement tighter restrictions in Toronto, Peel and possibly York, here’s a look back at how the novel coronavirus has surged this fall. 6:24

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

CBC | Health News

Asteroid Impact That Killed Dinosaurs ‘Worst-Case’ Scenario: Scientists

This site may earn affiliate commissions from the links on this page. Terms of use.

We’ve known for several decades that the dinosaurs were most likely wiped out by a meteor impact, but ongoing research continues to discover new nuances to the overall situation. New data published in Nature Communications suggests that the dinosaur-killer hit at a steep and somewhat uncommon angle — and that the consequences for life on Earth were significant.

Most reports and discussions of Chicxulub assume that the asteroid struck at a 90-degree angle. While an easy simplification, this is likely untrue; only one in 15 meteor impacts is steeper than 75 degrees, and only 25 percent occur between 60 degrees and vertical, according to the paper. Furthermore, when an asteroid strikes at 90 degrees, three distinctive features — the mantle uplift center, peak ring center, and crater center — are all on top of one another. That’s not the case at Chicxulub. Instead, these features are staggered off-center, with the peak ring center and the mantle uplift center on opposite sides of the crater center. This indicates the impact angle was something other than 90 degrees.

Image by Nature

The crater center is the center of the area the asteroid or comet excavated, the peak ring center is the center of the inner ring of displaced rock that forms in this type of complex crater (as shown in Lowell crater below), and the point of maximum mantle uplift is the spot where the mantle rose highest under the crust in response to the impact. After a hit like the Chicxulub impactor, the Earth would have rung like a bell for days, seismologically speaking.

Lowell Crater, Mars, with peak ring visible. Image from NASA via Wikipedia

The researchers modeled a variety of impact angles and speeds to determine what the most likely criteria for the impactor were. What they found strongly suggests that the asteroid or comet approached at a 60-degree angle, based on the remains of the crater and how the debris was distributed. The images below show the trajectory of a 60-degree impact versus a 30-degree impact.

60 degree impact. Image by Nature.

30-degree impact. Image by Nature.

At low impact angles, the center of the mantle uplift and the center of the simulated peak ring are both shifted downrange. When the impact occurs at a high angle, the mantle uplift offsets uprange, while the peak impact ring offsets downrange. The degree of offset depends on the impact angle, and 60 degrees matches the offsets we see at Chicxulub.

The “worst-case scenario” comes into play because of what the asteroid hit. The rocks underneath the Chicxulub impact site were rich in hydrocarbons, sulfur, and CO2, in part thanks to huge organic deposits left over from living things. The 60-degree impact, according to the researchers, released 2-3x more sulfur and CO2 than a 90-degree impact would have, and 10x more than a very shallow (15-degree) impact would have.

In short, we may exist today because the dinosaurs didn’t just get hit by an asteroid — they got hit by an asteroid in the worst possible way. Had the asteroid arrived moments later, or at a slightly different angle, the last 66 million years of history on Planet Earth might have gone down a very different path.

Feature image credit: NASA

Now Read:

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

ExtremeTechExtreme – ExtremeTech